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The year-end sales figures for 2009 landed on my desk last Friday, and they were a bit of a wake-up call! Sales dollar volume dropped by almost 60%, and the number of transactions fell by 42% over the prior year.

Is it any wonder that we are beginning to experience an "adjustment" in the market, as it pertains to pricing? Astute owners who are desirous of selling in today's challenging world are negotiating transactions that are oftentimes surprising. And savvy buyers are recognizing the window of opportunity which currently exists, and are aggressively honing in on those properties which best meet their familiy's needs. It's an interesting time in the history of the Vail Valley real estate market!

That said, we have experienced a notable uptick in showing activity, contracts and closed deals since the first of the year. I remain guardedly optimistic that this trend will continue, setting the stage for a solid rebound from the past year's malaise.

Please visit again soon for an updated year-end report, in which we'll look at overall trends, pricing trends, and activity levels. Until then, I thank you for your interest, and welcome your call or email to discuss our market in greater detail.

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy…
and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

This famous maxim from investor Warren Buffett is as applicable to today’s real estate market as it has been for many years.. when was the last time that you saw “Vail on Sale”? For most of us, it’s been over twenty years… if ever! Yet those of us in the business have consistently been surprised to see the unprecedented values that buyers are realizing over the past few months, with overall prices down in the range of 20% - 30% when compared with 18 – 24 months ago.

The most recent sales numbers are hot off the press, and are reflective of the above. Year-to-date sales dollar volume is currently off 62% from 2008, with $633 million in sales. Transaction volume is doing a bit better, down approximately 46%. Though our average residential sales price currently stands at $1.145 million, over 40% of this year’s deals have been for under $500,000, and 70% have been under $1 million. Vail Village, Beaver Creek and Arrowhead are leading the way this year, each with appx $66 million in sales. Cordillera is following closely behind, with year-to-date sales of approximately $56 million.

Yet the Vail Valley luxury market is showing signs of life… and in a notable way! A $22 million listing in Beaver Creek was placed under contract in October, followed by the $11.25 million closing of a beautiful spec home in Bachelor Gulch. Add in the $15.5 million sale of a Mountain Star estate last summer, and you’ve got three of the largest residential transactions in the history of the Vail Valley, remarkable given the current economic environment. Deals such as these will go far in bolstering the confidence of our overall market… and encouraging those who are currently “sitting on the fence” to make a move now so as to take advantage of the rare window of opportunity which currently exists.

The latest sales figures demonstrate a positive direction for Vail Valley real estate. The month of June reflected $95 million in sales volume county-wide, up from but $40 million in January. And each passing week of the summer season has seemed busier than the one before it, leading me to expect good things when the figures come in for July, August and September.

While this trend is quite positive in light of the events of last fall, and the continued economic challenges faced by our country, they are a significant drop from years past. Monthly sales volume averaged $186 million in 2008, and $247 million in 2007. To say we are experiencing a major adjustment in our market would be quite the understatement.

Yet contrary to popular belief, significant transactions are still occurring throughout the Vail Valley, albeit at a much slower pace than in years past. Select, one-of-a-kind properties... those which come on the market once every ten-to-twenty years... have continued to sell. And those properties which are priced according to today's market environment, versus that of the past year or two, have also seen activity. We have seen transactions as high as $15 million close this year, and additional properties listed as high as $12 million go under contract. In many instances, if not most, closings are reflecting substantial discounts from original list prices… something that has not typically occurred in our market in years past. These transactions reinforce the observation that this is a good time to buy, at least in the eyes of a few select, savvy buyers.

Many of these buyers have a long history of ownership in our community. Based on their personal experience, they recognize the many benefits... lifestyle, family, financial and otherwise… of buying in our market during uncertain times such as these. These are especially ringing endorsements for our market, and bode well for our future success.

Based on our current sales trends and showing activity, I sense that we are beginning to turn a corner, and that we will see continued sales growth once the summertime figures for July, August and September are in. Stay tuned… it’s sure to stay interesting!!

Our recent ski season ended up with a bang... both in a fun-filled final weekend, and in our real estate market! Throngs of revelers celebrated another fun-filled ski season, with our infamous World Pond Skimming Championships followed by a packed outdoor concert on Meadow Drive. It was a fun and fitting tribute to a season filled with powder and great memories... made all the more so by the great uncertainty that stared us in the face back in December!

One of the great misperceptions of the season past is that the Vail Valley real estate market came to a screeching stop... and that noone was buying property. While our transaction velocity and sales dollar volume have clearly taken pause since the events of last September, savvy buyers are beginning to return to the market. Since just the first of April, a $7.3 million condominium at Solaris was placed under contract. This was followed by what will likely be the largest transaction of the year when it closes, a $21.95 million home in Mountain Star!

The following list highlights properties listed at $3 million and above which have been placed under contract and in most cases closed since late February.

Bachelor Gulch - Skywatch single family - originally listed at $6,975,000 - sold at $5,800,000 / $904 sf
Bachelor Gulch - Daybreak Ridge single family - originally listed at $10,900,000 - sold at $6,750,000 / $985 sf

Beaver Creek - Market Square condominium - originally listed at $3,475,000 - sold at $3,100,000 / $1,016 sf
Beaver Creek - Greystone Townhome - Originally listed at $3,850,000 - Sold at $3,500,000 / $960 sf
Beaver Creek - Village Walk townhome - Originally listed at $7,250,000 - Sold at $6,100,000 / $1,336 sf

Cordillera (Ranch) - Graham Road single family - Originally listed at $3,200,000 - Sold at $2,920,000 / $399 sf
Cordillera (Valley Club) - Spring Creek Lane single family - Originally listed at $8,750,000 - Sold at $6,100,000 / $620 sf

Lake Creek/Pilgrim Downs - Pilgrim Drive single family - Originally listed at $5,000,000 - Sold at $4,000,000 / $446 sf

Lionshead - Arrabelle penthouse - Originally listed at $14,250,000 - Sold at $9,150,000 / $1,697 sf

Mountain Star - Wildwood single family - Originally lised at $21,950,000 / $2,195 sf - Under Contract

Vail Village - Solaris condominium - Listed at $7,300,000 / $2,889 sf - Under Contract
Vail Village - Vail Mountain View condominium - Originally listed at $3,795,000 - Sold at $3,200,000 / $1,678 sf

Red Sky Ranch - the introduction of a new project on Juniper Trail resulted in nine single family homes being reserved within the first three weeks, generally priced in the $1mm - $1.4mm range. More are sure to follow the arrival of the summer golf season.

Notable sales over the ski season most often reflected unique, one-of-a-kind properties... very motivated sellers... or both. The above activity bodes well for the summer selling season which is soon to arrive.

Looking ahead, the general concensus is that we may be witnessing a gradual turn in the national economy, as investors and consumers adjust to the new realities of the market. The same can be said in the Vail Valley, as more and more sellers come to grips with the fact that they must price their property for today's market, versus that of two years ago. With many buyers still waiting on the sidelines, and the "disconnect" which has existed between sellers and buyers gradually dissipating, we are well-positioned to have a solid second half to the year. Stay tuned!

Recent conversations with top brokers in the valley have confirmed my suspicions... showing activity has been holding its own as we move into the final weeks of the ski season. Always a harbinger of business to come, this is a very positive and perhaps surprising development.

Many of us have clients who have temporarily positioned themselves on the sidelines, watching the market and waiting for the right opportunity to make a move. Meanwhile, many of those buyers who have made offers over the past couple of weeks have been pleasantly surprised by the response! Discounts of 25% from original list price are the current average in the high end of the market, and depending upon the specific property and owner's motivations, are sometimes more. These buyers have astutely positioned themselves to take advantage of the current shift in our market, are buying property at an excellent value, in Vail terms, and will enjoy their real estate for many years with the knowledge that they made a sound long term acquisition.

I fully expect more of the same, and in fact, for this trend to accelerate as prices come more and more in line with buyers' expectations. It will be quite interesting to see how the remainder of the ski season, and in fact, the summer to come, play out in the Vail Valley's real estate market. Stay tuned for more!