Vail Valley Luxury Real Estate Market Update

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2009 year-end numbers reflective of overall economy

2010-02-15T14:22:00.005-07:00

The year-end sales figures for 2009 landed on my desk last Friday, and they were a bit of a wake-up call! Sales dollar volume dropped by almost 60%, and the number of transactions fell by 42% over the prior year.

Is it any wonder that we are beginning to experience an "adjustment" in the market, as it pertains to pricing? Astute owners who are desirous of selling in today's challenging world are negotiating transactions that are oftentimes surprising. And savvy buyers are recognizing the window of opportunity which currently exists, and are aggressively honing in on those properties which best meet their familiy's needs. It's an interesting time in the history of the Vail Valley real estate market!

That said, we have experienced a notable uptick in showing activity, contracts and closed deals since the first of the year. I remain guardedly optimistic that this trend will continue, setting the stage for a solid rebound from the past year's malaise.

Please visit again soon for an updated year-end report, in which we'll look at overall trends, pricing trends, and activity levels. Until then, I thank you for your interest, and welcome your call or email to discuss our market in greater detail.

Fall Real Estate Update

2009-11-18T12:10:00.023-07:00

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy…
and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

This famous maxim from investor Warren Buffett is as applicable to today’s real estate market as it has been for many years.. when was the last time that you saw “Vail on Sale”? For most of us, it’s been over twenty years… if ever! Yet those of us in the business have consistently been surprised to see the unprecedented values that buyers are realizing over the past few months, with overall prices down in the range of 20% - 30% when compared with 18 – 24 months ago.

The most recent sales numbers are hot off the press, and are reflective of the above. Year-to-date sales dollar volume is currently off 62% from 2008, with $633 million in sales. Transaction volume is doing a bit better, down approximately 46%. Though our average residential sales price currently stands at $1.145 million, over 40% of this year’s deals have been for under $500,000, and 70% have been under $1 million. Vail Village, Beaver Creek and Arrowhead are leading the way this year, each with appx $66 million in sales. Cordillera is following closely behind, with year-to-date sales of approximately $56 million.

Yet the Vail Valley luxury market is showing signs of life… and in a notable way! A $22 million listing in Beaver Creek was placed under contract in October, followed by the $11.25 million closing of a beautiful spec home in Bachelor Gulch. Add in the $15.5 million sale of a Mountain Star estate last summer, and you’ve got three of the largest residential transactions in the history of the Vail Valley, remarkable given the current economic environment. Deals such as these will go far in bolstering the confidence of our overall market… and encouraging those who are currently “sitting on the fence” to make a move now so as to take advantage of the rare window of opportunity which currently exists.

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.”

Yet another famous Buffett saying, and another that can be readily applied to today’s market. For the past 5 - 7 years, the aggressive growth in our market has enabled many a spec developer to “swim naked” while profiting the whole time. Yet given the current conditions, many of these same players have been caught with their trunks down… or missing altogether. Whether the developer of a large, multi-unit project in Vail... or a one-off, single family luxury residence in Cordillera or Red Sky Ranch... the game changed quickly a year ago. Speaking from personal experience, owners of many of these properties have dropped prices significantly, and are experiencing sleepless nights waiting for a sale. As a result, great opportunity currently exists for buyers of speculative property throughout the Vail Valley.

What does this mean to you?

As a prospective buyer, you can consider the “tide” of Vail Valley real estate as out as it has been in many years… resulting in the availability of many a significant “deal”. If you are currently positioned to acquire real estate, particularly a spec property, this is perhaps the best time to make a move as we’ve seen since the early ‘80’s. There is a rich inventory of very attractive properties from which to choose throughout the Vail Valley. Prices are down considerably over years past. And current seller psychology is such that, in many cases, buyers have the opportunity to realize a fantastic value.

Selling your property?

If selling your property, know that aggressively pricing your residence ahead of the market, and ahead of your competitors, will be one of the main keys to your success. Buyers are understandably looking to strike an aggressive deal, and if they don’t perceive one is available, they’ll just move on to the next property. If you are fortunate to attract a buyer, be prepared for them to take a very strong approach to negotiations… as they realize that market conditions currently lean heavily in their favor. If you receive an offer, work it as hard as you can, all-the-while keeping in mind that you hold the final “yes/no” decision.

If you can make the deal work, by all means do so. If you hit a point where you just won’t be happy at the closing table, then kindly tell your buyer “no” and hold out for the next one… knowing that it might be awhile for the next buyer is sitting across the desk from you. As painful as it may be, it’s that kind of world at the moment. And keep in mind the strong run-up in value you have received over the past five years, as well as the fact that the tables will eventually turn back in your favor.

What's coming up the road?

While we undoubtedly still have challenges ahead, factors such a robust stock market, slowly steadying employment and continued low interest rates are weaving themselves together in such a way as to help us turn the corner. The sales activity over the summer and fall months has provided us with a "baseline" for establishing values and pricing, something we did not have coming out of the past ski season. When combined with record-setting visits to our company website (http://www.vailrealestate.com/), and solid showing activity over the past two months, we are entering the new ski season with guarded optimism. And while values may continue to dip slightly in the near term, over the long term they remain solid.

Does this mean we're at the bottom? Whether Wall Street or Bridge Street, no one can accurately predict exactly where the bottom is, nor when things will turn around. But most of the signs suggest we're either at the bottom or quite close. The combination of attractive prices, willing sellers and low interest rates is almost unprecedented. This is a time unlike any other in recent history of the Vail Valley. And this is one of those "windows of opportunity" that, for thos who buy now, will be looked back upon with great fondness.

Fortunately, three things never change… no matter the economy

We don’t need Warren Buffett to state the obvious in this regard… in spite of the current conditions, we all need to keep in mind the three things that will ensure an eventual return to a more balanced market… the beauty of this wonderful place we are blessed to call “home” (even if only part time!)… the world class ski mountains in our back yard… and the desire of so many to share in this amazing lifestyle. As I sit watching the snow fall outside my window, I feel very confident in saying that we will all be fine over the long term… that property values will rebound nicely… and that there remain many memories for you to create with family and friends in your Colorado home! I look forward to being a part of those, and to the opportunity to be of service to you and your family.

In closing...

Thank you again for your interest in my market update. For additional details, I encourage you to visit the following link...

http://issuu.com/ledgardner/docs/2009_november_lga_enewsletter_full_market_update

Once there, click "full page" found in the upper left corner of the page, and then click on the right side of the publication to flip the pages. I hope you enjoy!

Please call or email with any questions or comments you might have, or simply to discuss the latest snow conditions… I’ll look forward to seeing you up here in the mountains very soon!

With my warmest personal regards,

Led Gardner
Slifer, Smith & Frampton Real Estate, LLC
Cell - 970-376-0223
Email - lgardner@slifer.net
Website - http://www.ledgardner.com/

Vail Real Estate Sales Trending in a Positive Direction

2009-08-18T06:24:00.005-06:00

The latest sales figures demonstrate a positive direction for Vail Valley real estate. The month of June reflected $95 million in sales volume county-wide, up from but $40 million in January. And each passing week of the summer season has seemed busier than the one before it, leading me to expect good things when the figures come in for July, August and September.

While this trend is quite positive in light of the events of last fall, and the continued economic challenges faced by our country, they are a significant drop from years past. Monthly sales volume averaged $186 million in 2008, and $247 million in 2007. To say we are experiencing a major adjustment in our market would be quite the understatement.

Yet contrary to popular belief, significant transactions are still occurring throughout the Vail Valley, albeit at a much slower pace than in years past. Select, one-of-a-kind properties... those which come on the market once every ten-to-twenty years... have continued to sell. And those properties which are priced according to today's market environment, versus that of the past year or two, have also seen activity. We have seen transactions as high as $15 million close this year, and additional properties listed as high as $12 million go under contract. In many instances, if not most, closings are reflecting substantial discounts from original list prices… something that has not typically occurred in our market in years past. These transactions reinforce the observation that this is a good time to buy, at least in the eyes of a few select, savvy buyers.

Many of these buyers have a long history of ownership in our community. Based on their personal experience, they recognize the many benefits... lifestyle, family, financial and otherwise… of buying in our market during uncertain times such as these. These are especially ringing endorsements for our market, and bode well for our future success.

Based on our current sales trends and showing activity, I sense that we are beginning to turn a corner, and that we will see continued sales growth once the summertime figures for July, August and September are in. Stay tuned… it’s sure to stay interesting!!

Ski Season Ends with a Bang!

2009-04-25T11:20:00.004-06:00

Our recent ski season ended up with a bang... both in a fun-filled final weekend, and in our real estate market! Throngs of revelers celebrated another fun-filled ski season, with our infamous World Pond Skimming Championships followed by a packed outdoor concert on Meadow Drive. It was a fun and fitting tribute to a season filled with powder and great memories... made all the more so by the great uncertainty that stared us in the face back in December!

One of the great misperceptions of the season past is that the Vail Valley real estate market came to a screeching stop... and that noone was buying property. While our transaction velocity and sales dollar volume have clearly taken pause since the events of last September, savvy buyers are beginning to return to the market. Since just the first of April, a $7.3 million condominium at Solaris was placed under contract. This was followed by what will likely be the largest transaction of the year when it closes, a $21.95 million home in Mountain Star!

The following list highlights properties listed at $3 million and above which have been placed under contract and in most cases closed since late February.

Bachelor Gulch - Skywatch single family - originally listed at $6,975,000 - sold at $5,800,000 / $904 sf
Bachelor Gulch - Daybreak Ridge single family - originally listed at $10,900,000 - sold at $6,750,000 / $985 sf

Beaver Creek - Market Square condominium - originally listed at $3,475,000 - sold at $3,100,000 / $1,016 sf
Beaver Creek - Greystone Townhome - Originally listed at $3,850,000 - Sold at $3,500,000 / $960 sf
Beaver Creek - Village Walk townhome - Originally listed at $7,250,000 - Sold at $6,100,000 / $1,336 sf

Cordillera (Ranch) - Graham Road single family - Originally listed at $3,200,000 - Sold at $2,920,000 / $399 sf
Cordillera (Valley Club) - Spring Creek Lane single family - Originally listed at $8,750,000 - Sold at $6,100,000 / $620 sf

Lake Creek/Pilgrim Downs - Pilgrim Drive single family - Originally listed at $5,000,000 - Sold at $4,000,000 / $446 sf

Lionshead - Arrabelle penthouse - Originally listed at $14,250,000 - Sold at $9,150,000 / $1,697 sf

Mountain Star - Wildwood single family - Originally lised at $21,950,000 / $2,195 sf - Under Contract

Vail Village - Solaris condominium - Listed at $7,300,000 / $2,889 sf - Under Contract
Vail Village - Vail Mountain View condominium - Originally listed at $3,795,000 - Sold at $3,200,000 / $1,678 sf

Red Sky Ranch - the introduction of a new project on Juniper Trail resulted in nine single family homes being reserved within the first three weeks, generally priced in the $1mm - $1.4mm range. More are sure to follow the arrival of the summer golf season.

Notable sales over the ski season most often reflected unique, one-of-a-kind properties... very motivated sellers... or both. The above activity bodes well for the summer selling season which is soon to arrive.

Looking ahead, the general concensus is that we may be witnessing a gradual turn in the national economy, as investors and consumers adjust to the new realities of the market. The same can be said in the Vail Valley, as more and more sellers come to grips with the fact that they must price their property for today's market, versus that of two years ago. With many buyers still waiting on the sidelines, and the "disconnect" which has existed between sellers and buyers gradually dissipating, we are well-positioned to have a solid second half to the year. Stay tuned!

Showing activity remaining steady...

2009-03-09T13:17:00.003-06:00

Recent conversations with top brokers in the valley have confirmed my suspicions... showing activity has been holding its own as we move into the final weeks of the ski season. Always a harbinger of business to come, this is a very positive and perhaps surprising development.

Many of us have clients who have temporarily positioned themselves on the sidelines, watching the market and waiting for the right opportunity to make a move. Meanwhile, many of those buyers who have made offers over the past couple of weeks have been pleasantly surprised by the response! Discounts of 25% from original list price are the current average in the high end of the market, and depending upon the specific property and owner's motivations, are sometimes more. These buyers have astutely positioned themselves to take advantage of the current shift in our market, are buying property at an excellent value, in Vail terms, and will enjoy their real estate for many years with the knowledge that they made a sound long term acquisition.

I fully expect more of the same, and in fact, for this trend to accelerate as prices come more and more in line with buyers' expectations. It will be quite interesting to see how the remainder of the ski season, and in fact, the summer to come, play out in the Vail Valley's real estate market. Stay tuned for more!

The ski season is moving on... what is selling?

2009-02-27T09:24:00.004-07:00

As we rapidly move toward the spring ski season, what is selling? In spite of the feeling amongst many that not much property is moving, many buyers are beginning to pick up terrific properties at very attractive prices.

Each of the following 28 properties, listed at $2 million and greater, were placed under contract after September. They have since either closed or are working in that direction!

Arrowhead - Cresta Townhome - Listed at $2,995,000/$1,068 sf - Sold at $2,000,000/$713 sf - February 13, 2009
Arrowhead - Trailside Single Family - Listed at $5,950,000/$978 sf - Sold at $5,350,000/$879 sf - February 18, 2009

Bachelor Gulch - Horizon Pass Townhome - Listed at $5,250,000/$1,133 sf - Sold at $4,250,000/$917 sf - February 11, 2009
Bachelor Gulch - Buckhorn Townhome - Listed at $2,900,000/$762 sf - Under Contract
Bachelor Gulch - Quartermoon Single Townhome - Listed at $4,195,000/$998 sf - Under Contract
Bachelor Gulch - Sky Watch Single Family - Listed at $6,195,000/$965 sf - Under Contract

Beaver Creek - Villa Montane Townhome - Listed at $2,375,000/$954 sf - Sold at $1,900,000/$763 sf - February 26, 2009
Beaver Creek - Larkspur Villas Townhome -Listed at $2,975,000/$721 sf - Sold at $2,500,000/$606 sf - February 4, 2009
Beaver Creek - Elkhorn Lodge Penthouse - Listed at $3,599,000/$1,251 sf - Sold at $3,044,000/$1,057 sf - February 12, 2009
Beaver Creek - Greystone Townhome - Listed at $4,595,000/$1,317 sf - Sold at $4,100,000/$1,175 sf - February 12, 2009
Beaver Creek - Saddleridge Villas Townhome - Listed at $2,800,000/$914 sf - Under Contract
Beaver Creek - Bachelor Gulch Drive Duplex - Listed at $4,600,000/$990 sf - Under Contract
Beaver Creek - Village Walk Townhome - Listed at $6,750,000/$1,478 sf - Under Contract

Cordillera - Divide Single Family - Listed at $2,595,000/$472 sf - Under Contract
Cordillera - Valley Club Single Family - Listed at $6,850,000/$696 sf - Under Contract

Lake Creek - Single Family in Pilgrim Downs - Listed at $5,000,000/$558 sf - Under Contract

Vail - Highland Meadows Single Family - Listed at $2,099,000/$560 sf - Sold at $1,857,250/$495 sf - December 24, 2008
Vail - West Vail Single Family - Listed at $2,250,000/$497 sf - Sold at $1,850,000/$409 sf - December 3, 2008
Vail - Manor Vail Condominium - Listed at $2,600,000/$1,720 sf - Sold at $2,200,000/$1,455 sf - December 2, 2008
Vail - Vail Golf Course Duplex - Listed at $3,900,000/$1,111 sf - Sold at $3,100,000/$883 sf - December 5, 2009
Vail - Willows Condominium - Listed at $2,200,000/$1,588 sf - Under Contract
Vail - Highland Meadows Single Family - Listed at $2,299,000/$508 sf - Under Contract
Vail - Glen Lyon/Cascade Village Duplex - Listed at $2,495,000/$780 sf - Under Contract
Vail - East Vail Duplex - Listed at $2,975,000/$698 sf - Under Contract
Vail - Arrabelle Penthouse - Listed at $11,900,000/$2,207 sf - Under Contract

Compare the sale-to-list prices above... this is why I am encouraging buyers to make an offer... you might be very pleasantly surprised!

MARKET SEARCHING FOR ITS LEGS

2009-02-21T06:33:00.022-07:00

Vail, Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch real estate, just like every luxury brand, is searching for its legs as we move toward the spring season. Whether Maybach or Marc Jacobs... Polo or Patek Philippe... Chanel or Château Lafitte... luxury brands around the world are experiencing a pause after many years of strong sales. The current times are certainly different than what we have experienced for the past twenty years... what might this mean to you?

How did 2008 turn out?

One almost has to divide 2008 into two separate periods... that prior to September and the months following. Leading up to the 4th quarter, sales of high-end properties continued to be strong, and in many pricing categories, were actually ahead of the record-setting pace of 2007. Yet this changed dramatically, as might be expected, the third week of September. The uncertainty that resulted from the unprecedented events of the final months of the year cast a pall over sales of luxury property world-wide, as buyers attempted to make sense of what was taking place and the impact it might have on their personal wealth. As a result, many who were poised to buy in the Vail Valley temporarily put their plans on hold.

Sales dollar volume ended 2008 down approximately 25% as compared with the all-time record of almost $3 billion established in 2007. At $2.2 billion in sales, we ended the year in similar fashion as in 2004. Yet in spite of the current concern about the market, look again at the number above... $2.2 billion in sales volume! Going back to 1989, we were excited about breaking the $400 million mark... and crossed the $1 billion threshold only as recently as 1997. Our sales volume has grown an average of 12.5% over the past twenty years, a strong testament to the desirability and attractiveness of our wonderful mountain community, and to the strength of the families who choose to own here.

How are things going now?

Following the financial debacle of late September, and the events which have unfolded since, we are just now beginning to decipher some noteworthy trends in our evolving real estate market.

Transactions are still occurring, albeit at a slower pace. Select, one-of-a-kind properties... those which come on the market once every ten-to-twenty years... have continued to sell. And those properties which are priced according to today's market, versus that of the past year or two, have also seen good activity.

The "disconnect" between buyers and sellers is shrinking, as many sellers are coming to the realization that the world really is different today than it was just six months ago. We are seeing listing price reductions of 10% - 20% on a regular basis, which in the high-end, often adds up to price reductions of $1 - $2 million. Of the seventeen properties listed at $1 million and more which have closed since December 1, 2008, the average sale-to-list has averaged 75%, with the median of 72%. As the ski season moves toward its close, and as sellers continue to acknowledge that pricing is key in today's market, we will continue to see aggressive price reductions. This bodes well for those looking to make acquisitions in our market.

Many buyers of substantial wealth are actively positioning themselves, planning to make a move when the time and opportunity are right. I have had several conversations since the first of the year with buyers who tell me (1) they have lost 30% - 40% - 50% of their net worth over the past year, yet notably; (2) they still want to buy in the Vail Valley. In many cases, these individuals have a long history of ownership in our community. Based on their personal experience, they recognize the many benefits... lifestyle, family, financial and otherwise, of buying in our market during uncertain times such as these. These are especially ringing endorsements for our market, and bode well for our continued success well into the future.

What does this mean to you?

A slowed market, though in our case far from weak, is often rich in opportunity. If you are a buyer, this may be the best chance to pick up a bargain (in Vail terms!) in many years, and for many years to come. You'll still pay millions for a new home on Forest Road, in Strawberry Park or on Daybreak Ridge, though in many cases, fewer millions than in recent years. The time is right to make offers... aggressive offers. You might be pleasantly surprised!

If you are a seller, the days of "testing the market" on pricing are long gone. Recognize that things really are different, assess whether this is the time for you to sell, and work closely with your broker to strategically position yourself price-wise against your competitors. Attractive, one-of-a-kind properties that are priced for today's world will sell. If you have owned for more than five years, and in some cases less, you will still very likely come out ahead at the closing table... something that investors in most other arenas can only dream about. Real estate in the Vail Valley has consistently proved to be a sound asset in challenging times, and as you have seen, a worthy addition to your investment portfolio.

What does the future hold?

In spite of the current economic conditions, the fundamentals of Vail Valley real estate remain sound. Three things that have driven our market over the years will never change... (1) the beauty of our mountains... the quality of our world-class skiing and other recreational opportunities... and the desirabily of our mountain lifestyle; (2) the limited number of opportunities to own in the Vail Valley, given the finite amount of land on which to build, and; (3) the dream of so many to be here.

Moving into 2009, there remains uncertainty as to how the market will play out in the short term. Yet those with a history in the Vail Valley know that, over the long term, premium brands such as Vail and Beaver Creek will be the first to bounce back, and are planning accordingly. They recognize that the current pause in our market will provide one of the best buying opportunities of the past several years. And based on their past experience, they are confident that this will be looked back upon as a time when astute buyers made wise and profitable real estate acquisitions. It comes back to the old "80/20" rule... the first 20% in will look very savvy, and the other 80% will look just a little bit late.

I welcome the opportunity to help you be one of the 20%.

Eagle County Sales Trends
1987 – 2008*

Sales Dollar Volume

1987 $251,000,000
1988 $310,000,000 23.5%
1989 $425,000,000 37.1%
1990 $407,000,000 ( 4.2%)
1991 $436,000,000 7.1%
1992 $499,000,000 14.5%
1993 $686,000,000 37.5%
1994 $797,000,000 16.2%
1995 $819,000,000 2.8%
1996 $939,000,000 14.7%
1997 $1,279,000,000 36.2%
1998 $1,335,186,800 4.4%
1999 $1,534,764,122 15.0%
2000 $1,704,885,500 11.1%
2001 $1,402,691,100 (17.7%)
2002 $1,502,259,801 7.1%
2003 $1,471,498,700 ( 2.1%)
2004 $2,225,840,000 51.3%
2005 $2,800,249,502 25.8%
2006 $2,754,171,600 ( 1.7%)
2007 $2,960,497,200 7.5%
2008 $2,234,919,100 (24.5%)

Sales Volume has grown an average of 7.2% over the past ten years, and 12.5% over the past twenty years.

Average Transaction

1987 $189,291
1988 $177,447 (6.3%)
1989 $189,817 7.0%
1990 $206,494 8.8%
1991 $225,907 9.4%
1992 $240,366 6.4%
1993 $257,411 7.1%
1994 $273,695 6.3%
1995 $408,479 49.3%
1996 $377,108 (7.7%)
1997 $452,103 19.9%
1998 $455,074 0.7%
1999 $493,018 8.3%
2000 $638,056 29.4%
2001 $630,990 (1.1%)
2002 $643,642 2%
2003 $566,615 (12%)
2004 $675,931 19.3%
2005 $696,060 2.9%
2006 $884,164 27.0%
2007 $1,101,375 24.6%
2008 $1,391,606 26.4%

The Average Transaction Value has grown an average of 20.4% over the past five years, 12.7% per year over the past ten years, 10.8% over the past twenty years.

Sources: Data Research Associates, Breckenridge, Colorado and Land Title Guarantee/Vail. All information is deemed accurate, though not guaranteed.

Vail Valley real estate market catching its breath

2008-07-07T13:15:00.008-06:00

While Vail Valley real estate continues to produce impressive numbers, as might be expected, we are beginning to feel the impact of the many economic uncertainties which currently abound.

What’s happening in the market?

May year-to-date reports reflected a drop of 30% in sales dollar volume and 47% in the number of transactions in Eagle County. May was the second slowest month since 1996, and my gut feeling is that June was equally lethargic.

Particularly hard hit is the low-to-mid range of our market, which is largely dependent upon the ability to finance a sale. This will likely remain the case until the mortgage industry regains its legs, consumer confidence rises, and other uncertainties begin to clear the air.

The luxury niche of our market, in contrast, continues to do very well. Much less dependent upon financing, sales of residential properties listed at $2 million and greater continue at a strong pace. Even taking into account the numerous closings at new projects such as Arrabelle, Forest Place, and others, sales in this niche remain well ahead of any year prior to 2007.

Comparison of Residential Transactions

Listed $2 milllion and above

Year-to-Date July 5

2008 - 116 sales

2007 - 145 sales

2006 - 101 sales

2005 - 77 sales

2004 - 63 sales

2003 - 38 sales

How does the Vail Valley compare?

Of further interest, our market stacks up very well when compared with others throughout the intermountain west. A report compiled by the Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance showed that, at the end of the first quarter, the Vail Valley was over $200 million ahead of Park City/Deer Valley, our nearest competitor, and significantly above others such as Aspen and Telluride. This is yet another tribute to all that the Vail Valley has to offer its owners and guests.

What does the future hold?

Most of the tenured real estate brokers, owners and investors I deal with see this as but a temporary pause in our market. If history holds true, which I fully expect, we will be off to the races again within 12 - 18 months, and perhaps sooner. If the next surge is like the one of the past five years, we can expect to see another rush of buyers and rapidly escalating prices once we turn the corner.

What does this mean to me?

Within this environment stands an opportunity to buy which has not existed for several years. Buyers with a historical perspective of the Vail Valley have witnessed our ability to ride through challenging times, and many of these astute individuals recognize that the lulls between hot streaks are a very strategic time to acquire property. In particular, many developers of speculative properties, whether single family homes on the golf course or new condominium projects in town, are hungry to negotiate deals. Those buyers who step up to the plate now will be thankful they did.

What's the bottom line?

All of this is to say that, in spite of the uncertainties in the financial markets, run-up in oil prices, and mortgage market corrections, luxury resort real estate in the Vail Valley still represents a very sound acquisition. Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch are essentially built-out, and prime new projects in Vail will follow suit. Once they are gone, they’re gone. I encourage you to take advantage of this pause in our market, and if you see a property which meets your family's dreams and wishes, to move forward with its acquisition. Doing so will create irreplaceable memories for your family over the years, and if history holds true, you will be very pleased when it comes time to sell!

What's really happening in our market?

2008-03-21T16:24:00.005-06:00

More and more frequently, I am hearing owners, buyers, sellers and Realtors (who frankly should know better!) make comments such as “in a market like this…” or “it’s just not the same…” or whatever… often stated with a look of fear in their eyes. To which my only response is “What do you mean?”

Fact… our year-to-date numbers are down from 2007. Fact… what most people forget is how quickly we came out of the gates in 2007, and how strong sales were over the first few months of the year. Thus, comparing year-to-year sales numbers is a bit off base. If you take a more prudent, long-term look at our market, going back more than just twelve months, you will note that we are not that far off the mark from historical trends. This is true not only in the Vail Valley, but also in Aspen and many other luxury resort markets. This is especially true of the high-end, luxury niche of our market.

What folks also forget is that, given all the uncertainties out there with the economy, Wall Street, petroleum prices, lenders, etc., it is amazing that we are proving to be as resilient as we are! This should come as no surprise, however. Looking back over the past twenty years, we have successfully ridden through several “storms” that many pundits had predicted would derail our real estate market. Whether “Black Monday” in 1987… the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990… the Asian financial crises in 1997… the tech market meltdown in 2000… the September 11 attacks… the ongoing rash of accounting/corporate scandals… or the outbreak of the second Iraq war, each of these events could have reasonably been expected to have a negative impact on Vail Valley real estate. Yet the overall trend in our market for the past twenty years has been one of strong activity and growth.

The bottom line is that THIS IS PERHAPS THE BEST TIME IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS TO BUY! Historically, these pauses in our market present buyers with excellent inventory, more negotiable sellers who are anxious to make a deal, and less competition from other buyers who might be after the same property. These periods of calm, typically lasting a year or two, are also invariably followed by periods of strong run-ups in sales, and prices.

Personally, I am finding that Sellers are becoming more nervous about all of the uncertainty, and are not nearly as bullish when negotiating pricing and the terms of a deal. This represents a dramatic shift from the seller’s market we have experienced to a neutral, or even a buyer’s market for the first time in years. Astute buyers with experience in the Vail Valley know that this is the time to buy!

2008-02-07T16:41:00.000-07:00

2007 Market Summary

Year in Review

Vail Valley Market Remains Solid!

With year-end numbers hot-off-the-press, the Vail Valley real estate market has established a new, all-time record of over $2.96 billion in sales. This number represents a 7% jump over 2006, and is more than $160 million greater than our previous record, established in 2005. This solid growth is backed up by an equally solid inventory of available properties and new developments from which to choose, thus laying the foundation for continued strength in our market.

Many would say that our sales success “bucks the trends” so widely touted in national magazines, newspapers and on-line, most of which claim a disastrous real estate market. Yet the facts are that many luxury and resort markets across the country remain quite healthy. A recent Newsweek article titled “What Housing Crisis?” stated that sales of homes costing $5 million and more were up 31% in the first quarter of 2007. According to luxury broker Prudential Douglas Elliman of New York, sales of Manhattan apartments costing $10 million and more tripled in 2007… hardly reflective of a flagging market.

Regionally, this trend also holds true throughout the intermountain west, as well as here in the Vail Valley. Routt County (Steamboat) sales jumped 42% in 2007, and Summit County (Copper Mountain, Breckenridge and Keystone) broke even with the strong prior year. And while Pitkin County (Aspen) sales were off 5%, Aspen’s rapidly-growing “down valley” markets in Garfield County showed a 17% jump. Whether in New York, Beverly Hills, Vail or Aspen, luxury markets attract a clientele that is not overly impacted by interest rate swings, stock market volatility, etc. In fact, many astute individuals see high-end resort areas such as the Vail Valley as a “safe haven” in which to place a portion of their funds.

High-end niche leading the way

The high-end niche of our market continues to lead the way, demonstrated by strong sales gains across the board. Sales of properties listed at $1 million and above grew by 17% in 2007. More notably, sales between $3 - 5 million are up almost 41% over two years ago… properties listed between $5 - $10 million are up 133%... and sales of properties listed at $10 million and up have grown by 100% over 2005. Given the continued strong showing activity in this luxury niche, as well as the new product coming on-line over the next 24 – 36 months, I expect this trend to continue well into the future.

New developments selling very well

New developments up and down the Vail Valley continue to sell very well, and at prices that are unprecedented in our market. Many are already sold out, and others are experiencing strong and balanced sales, with sell-outs predicted over the coming year. This success is leading to many more projects in the development stage, and what started out as Vail’s so-called “Billion Dollar Renaissance” will end up being a multi-billion re-creation of Vail and Lionshead. Prices for new property in Vail Village most generally range from $2,000 - $3,000/sf, and new properties in Lionshead now command $1,700 - $2,000/sf and more. The market has proven receptive to these prices, given the quality, services and perfect locations offered by many of these developments.

2007 was also a record year for construction

Vail’s 2007 construction activity has once again surpassed any previous year, according to Town of Vail records. Vail’s Community Development Department issued over $496 million in permit valuations, which are based on construction values. This number represents an approximate 40% increase over Vail’s previous record of $355 million, set in the prior year. Of particular note, 2007 marks the fifth consecutive year for record construction activity.

What’s behind this growth?

The activity in our market, as well as in premiere resorts and luxury markets throughout the country, is being fueled by many diverse factors. Collectively, they add up to create strong demand for first-tier, high-end real estate… whether located in Manhattan, San Francisco, Palm Beach or Vail.

First and foremost, there is a large and growing pool of wealth, both old and new, circulating the globe. According to Merrill Lynch’s World Wealth report published in June, 2007, the number of “ultra-high net worth” individuals… those with $30 million or more… increased by more than 11% over the prior year. Also, it states that there are approximately 9.5 million millionaires worldwide, a jump of over 8% from the previous year’s report.

Another key factor in this growth is purely demographics-driven. Members of the Baby Boomer Generation, many of whom have created significant personal wealth, are now coming into their peak years for acquiring second and third homes. As we continue to mature, this trend will continue well into the future. Supplementing the personal success of this generation is the largest transfer of wealth ever recorded from one generation to another, which has already started taking place and will continue for many years to come.

In spite of its recent ups-and-downs, the stock market has created significant wealth over the past few years. The tech market is rebounding nicely, and the continued success of companies such as Google, Apple and other trendsetters in the tech industry are adding new luster to this sector, attracting additional investment, innovation and success. Bonuses on Wall Street continue to be strong, and many high net worth individuals are now taking their profits from stock sales and allocating a portion of the money to more tangible assets such as luxury real estate.

Speaking of technology, many innovations over the past ten years have empowered corporate executives and successful entrepreneurs to be able to effectively conduct business from remote locations such as Vail and Beaver Creek. The end result is that they are now able to spend several months in the mountains, versus only a couple of weeks as in years past, thus making it much easier to justify acquiring resort property. As such, technology has opened up a new pool of potential buyers for Vail Valley real estate, many of whom are taking full advantage of this opportunity.

Lastly, the growing international economy is creating significant new wealth in areas such as India, Russia and others. An article in the February 6, 2008 Denver Post highlighted the influx of wealthy families from Russia, just the latest in a long line of international travelers attracted to the Vail Valley. The current, highly-favorable exchange rate also has an impact, making Vail Valley real estate seem a relative bargain to foreign buyers. I expect this to become even more significant in years to come.

In summary, unprecedented levels of personal, world-wide wealth is now chasing what is a very limited product, i.e., high-quality resort real estate, with predictable impacts on both inventory and prices.

What’s to come?

I look at the current economic uncertainties as having a nominal impact on the high end of our market. Looking back over the past twenty years, we have successfully ridden through storms that many pundits had predicted would derail our real estate market. Black Monday in 1987… the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990… the Asian financial crises in 1997… the tech market meltdown in 2000, the September 11 attacks… the outbreak of accounting/corporate scandals in 2002… and the outbreak of the second Iraq war. Each of these could have realistically been expected to have a hugely negative impact on Vail Valley real estate. Yet the overall trend in our market has been one of strong activity and growth. I expect the same will occur this time around, even given the current economic environment.

One interesting comparison to consider is as follows… in 1987, Eagle County tallied appx $251 million in sales and 1,326 transactions, which was considered a big year. In 2007, we accomplished $2.96 billion in sales, and almost 2,800 transactions! It will be fascinating to see where our future takes us.

In summary, Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch are essentially built-out, and Vail will soon follow suit upon completion of the multi-billion “renaissance” currently taking place. When combined with the growing world-wide demand for premium resort properties, our future remains very bright. While past results do not guarantee future success, I can say that all the pieces are in place to help ensure that we will enjoy many, many years of strong market activity.

2008-01-14T13:25:00.000-07:00

Market off to a fast start!

The sale of multi-million properties in Vail, Beaver Creek, Bachelor Gulch and Arrowhead continues to set the pace for our market as we roll into the New Year, dispelling the concerns some buyers have expressed about the staying power of Vail Valley real estate in the face of many economic uncertainties.

Eight notable ski properties have been placed under contract since January 1, ranging from Vail to Arrowhead. With our current momentum, I expect several more to sell over the remainder of the ski season.

Vail - Northwoods Townhome F6 - Listed at $5,750,000 / $1,300 square foot

Vail - Four Seasons Condominiums #940 - Listed at $7,150,000 / $2,506 square foot

Beaver Creek - 86 Village Walk - Listed at $6,650,000 / $1,513 square foot

Beaver Creek - McCoy Peak Lodge #401 - Listed at $4,395,000 / $1,345 square foot

Beaver Creek - 201 Borders Road - Listed at $9,995,000 / $1,102 square foot

Bachelor Gulch - Horizon Pass Lodge #306 - Listed at $4,539,000 / $1,159 square foot

Arrowhead - 434 Cresta - Listed at $4,095,000 / $1,000 square foot

Arrowhead - 1939 Cresta - Listed at $4,695,000 / $872 square foot

What does this mean to you?

I would again encourage you to discount the negativity that is so pervasive in the national headlines when considering property in the Vail Valley. The old maxim "Real estate is a LOCAL business" has never been more applicable than in today's world.

Our market, as well as most resort markets throughout the Intermountain West, remains solid and active. All indications are that they will remain so well into the future. We have weathered many storms over the years, and most long term owners would tell you that they are most pleased with the performance of their investment in Vail real estate... to say nothing of the wonderful memories they have created with their families over the years. Priceless!

2007-12-31T07:27:00.000-07:00

Holiday season winds up the year in style!

The holiday season is proving to be as active as any in recent memory, winding up a truly terrific year in Vail Valley real estate. Though final numbers won't be in until late January, the possibility remains good that we will establish a new, all-time sales record in 2007.

Many who are not familiar with the intricacies of our market find this trend hard to digest, given the negative headlines pertaining to real estate around the country. Yet luxury resort markets throughout the country continue to show solid activity, if not growth, and remain as desireable locations in which to acquire property. This is particularly true in resorts such as Vail, Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch, where supply is quite limited and demand continues to be as solid as ever.

Several noteable properties have either closed or been placed under contract since the beginning of December. Some highlights are as follows:

Vail - 2405 Elliot Road - otherwise known as The Savory Inn - listed at $4,950,000 - Under Contract

Vail - Arrabelle #617 - Condo listed at $4,999,000 / $2,093 square foot

Vail - Arrabelle #555 - Condo listed at $6,950,000 / $1,788 square foot

Vail - 315 Forest Road - Duplex sold for $8,150,000 / $2,189 square foot

Vail - 325 Forest Road - Duplex sold for $9,350,000 / $1,764 square foot

Vail - 330 Beaver Dam Circle - Duplex sold for $6,700,000 / $1,964 square foot

Vail - One Willow Bridge Road #307 - Condo sold for $5,300,000 / $2,865 square foot

Vail - One Willow Bridge Road #402 - Condo sold for $6,127,000 / $2,200 square foot

Vail - 798 West Forest Road - Duplex sold for $4,000,000 / $1,105 square foot

Vail - 796 West Forest Road - Duplex sold for $8,967,500 / $1,628 square foot

Vail - 618 Forest Place - Single family sold for $15,000,000 / $1,314 square foot

Beaver Creek - 210 Elk Track Rd - Single family sold for $8,400,000 / $1,024 square foot

Beaver Creek - 569 Holden Road - Single family listed at $5,250,000 - Under Contract

Bachelor Gulch - Ritz Carlton Penthouse #1005 - Listed at $6,195,000 - Under Contract

Bachelor Gulch - 89 Hummingbird Lane - Listed at $6,500,000 - Under Contract

A strong indicator of the confidence astute buyers have in our market is reflected in four of the above sales. A single buyer acquired both sides of the duplex at 315 and 325 Forest Road, representing a total investment of $17,500,000. Likewise, a single buyer acquired both sides of 796 and 798 West Forest Road, totaling $12,967,500. In both cases, the buyers saw the value of controlling both sides of a property in a location that will never be duplicated, in a resort where values are showing solid appreciation.

Likewise, the buyer of 618 Forest Place, one of but four gorgeous new single family homes situated directly on the Lionshead skiway, recognized the irreplaceable nature of this perfect location and beautiful home. It would be an understatement to say that $15 million represents a good value for a home with these attibutes in the Vail market.

All of this is to say that, in spite of the negative headlines selling newspapers around the country, and the challenging times that many markets are in fact facing, luxury resort real estate in the Vail Valley still represents a sound acquisition. If you see a property here which meets your family's dreams and wishes, I would encourage you to move forward with its purchase. Doing so will create irreplaceable memories for your family over the years, and if history holds true, you will also smile at the closing table when it comes time to sell!

2007-12-11T10:55:00.000-07:00

Market remains strong in the Vail Valley

October sales numbers continue to reflect a very strong and balanced real estate market in the Vail Valley. Sales dollar volume at the end of October was 15% over 2006, which in itself tallied over $2.7 billion in sales. Led by the high-end niche of the market, and with very strong showing activity through the early season, I expect us to establish a new record by year's end.

Our sales trends fly in the face of everything one reads in the national headlines, yet tend to hold true throughout the intermountain west, as well as in luxury markets such as Beverly Hills, Newport Beach and Palm Beach. Each of these high-end markets attract a clientele that is not overly impacted by interest rate fluctuations, stock market volatility, etc. In fact, many astute individuals view luxury resort areas such as the Vail Valley as a “safe haven” in which to place a portion of their funds.

The activity in our market continues to be fueled in large part by demographics. The Baby Boomer Generation is now coming into its peak years for acquiring second and third homes, and this trend will continue well into the future. Further fueling our growth is the largest transfer of wealth ever recorded from one generation to another, which has already started taking place and will continue for many years to come. In spite of its recent ups-and-downs, the stock market has created significant wealth over the past few years, and many high net worth individuals are now taking their profits and shifting money into areas such as luxury real estate. The tech market is also rebounding nicely, and is creating a new wave of substantial wealth. Google’s recent stock price of over $700/share, up 34% since mid-September, is but one recent example. And lastly, the growing international economy is creating significant new wealth in areas such as India. When combined with the current state of the weak dollar, luxury property has become even more attractive to foreign buyers.

Overall, I look at the current uncertainties as having a nominal impact on the high end of our market. Looking back over the past twenty years, we have successfully ridden through storms that many pundits had predicted would derail our real estate market. “Black Monday” in 1987… the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990… the Asian financial crises in 1997… the tech market meltdown in 2000… the September 11 attacks… the rash of accounting/corporate scandals in 2002… and the outbreak of the second Iraq war… each of these events could have reasonably been expected to have a negative impact on Vail Valley real estate. Yet the overall trend in our market has been one of strong activity and growth.

One interesting comparison to consider is as follows… in 1987, Eagle County tallied approximately $251 million in real estate sales and 1,326 transactions, which was considered a big year. In 2006, we accomplished $2.75 billion in sales, and over 3,100 transactions!

In summary, Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch are essentially built-out, and Vail will soon follow suit upon completion of our $2 billion “renaissance” currently taking place. When combined with the growing demand for premium resort properties, our future remains very bright. While past results do not guarantee future success, I can say that all the pieces are in place to help ensure that we will enjoy many, many years of strong market activity.

New Project Summary

Vail Village and Lionshead

New projects in Vail continue to experience strong demand. This will likely increase as develoments such as Arrabelle at Vail Square, One Willow Bridge Road and the Vail Plaza open during the ski season. Experience shows that once buyers can "touch and feel" the real estate, their interest is peaked.

The following is a brief synopsis of sales activity at the new projects in Vail and Lionshead.

Arrabelle at Vail Square / (Lionshead)

· 68 units went under contract in 2005 at an average list price of $1,107/sf
· 5 flips are currently under contract at an average list price of $1,633/sf
· 14 units are currently on the market at an average list price of $1,886/sf

One Willow Bridge Road / Vail Village

· 10 whole ownership units were originally offered at appx $2,000/sf
· 8 are currently under contract at list prices from $2,000 - $2,835/sf
· 1 unit just closed at $2,424/sf
· 1 unit is currently on the market at $2,916/sf

The Willows / Vail Village

· 8 units offered
· 7 units are currently under contract at list prices averaging $2,395/sf
· 1 unit is currently on the market at $2,698/sf

Manor Vail / Golden Peak – Vail Village

· 17 units offered
· 8 units are currently under contract at list prices averaging $2,524/sf
· 9 units are currently on the market at an average list price of $2,465/sf

Lodge at Vail Chalets / Vail Village

· 13 units offered
· All are currently under contract at prices averaging appx $2,500/sf and running up to appx $3,000/sf

Four Seasons / Vail Village

· 16 units offered
· 8 units are currently under contract

· 8 units are currently on the market at an average list price of approximately $2,500/sf

2007-11-05T13:19:00.000-07:00

3rd Quarter Market Analysis

Vail Valley market continues its solid pace

With 3rd Quarter numbers hot-off-the-press, the Vail Valley real estate market continues to build toward a very solid year. Sales dollar volume is currently up 18% over 2006, which in itself totaled over $2.7 billion. The high end niche of our market continues to show strong gains. As a quick example, sales of properties listed between $1 - $3 million are up almost 20% over two years ago… properties listed between $3 - $5 million are up 62%... properties listed between $5 - $10 million are up 90%... and sales of properties listed at $10 million and greater are up 31% over 2005. With current showing activity strong, I expect this trend to continue through year’s end.

Ignore the headlines

Our sales trends fly in the face of everything one reads in the national headlines, yet tend to hold true throughout the intermountain west, and in luxury markets such as Beverly Hills, Newport Beach and Palm Beach. Each of these markets, as well as many others around the world, attract a clientele that is not overly impacted by interest rate swings, stock market volatility, etc. In fact, many astute individuals see high end resort areas such as the Vail Valley as a “safe haven” in which to place a portion of their funds.

What's driving this activity?

The continued sales activity in our market is being fueled in large part by demographics. The Baby Boomer Generation is now coming into its peak years for acquiring second and third homes, and this trend will continue well into the future. Further fueling our growth is the largest transfer of wealth ever recorded from one generation to another, which has already started taking place and will continue for many years to come. In spite of its recent ups-and-downs, the stock market has created significant wealth over the past few years, and many high net worth individuals are now taking their profits and shifting money into areas such as luxury real estate. The tech market is also rebounding nicely, and is creating a new wave of substantial wealth. Google’s recent stock price of over $700/share, up 34% since mid-September, is but one recent example (I wish that I had bought when they went public!). And lastly, the growing international economy is creating significant wealth in countries such as India and others, many of which we would not have expected just a few years short ago. Again, this wealth is attracted to luxury markets such as Vail.

What are the numbers?

$1 million – plus sales

2005 - 363

2006 - 404

2007 - 475

$1 - $3 million sales

2005 - 290

2006 - 297

2007 - 347

$3 - $5 million sales

2005 - 50

2006 - 74

2007 - 81

$5 - $10 million sales

2005 - 21

2006 - 30

2007 - 40

$10 million – plus sales

2005 - 3

2006 - 3

2007 - 7

What does the future hold?

I look at the current uncertainties as having a nominal impact on the high end of our market. Looking back over the past twenty years, we have successfully ridden through storms that many pundits have predicted would derail our real estate market. Black Monday in 1987… the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990… the Asian financial crises in 1997… the tech market meltdown in 2000, the September 11 attacks… the outbreak of accounting/corporate scandals in 2002… and the outbreak of the second Iraq war… Each of these could have realistically been expected to have a negative impact on Vail Valley real estate. Yet the overall trend in our market has been one of strong activity and growth.

One interesting comparison to consider is as follows… in 1987, Eagle County tallied appx $251 million in real estate sales and 1,326 transactions, which was considered a big year. In 2006, we accomplished $2.75 billion in sales, and over 3,100 transactions!

In summary, Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch are essentially built-out, and Vail will soon follow suit upon completion of the $2 billion “renaissance” currently taking place. When combined with the growing demand for premium resort properties, our future remains very bright. While past results do not guarantee future success, I can say that all the pieces are in place to help ensure that we will enjoy many, many years of strong market activity.

2007-10-03T15:47:00.000-06:00

Eagle County Sales Cross $2 Billion Threshold (again!)

Total dollar volume for Eagle County has surpassed the $2 billion mark for the fourth consecutive year. With four months still remaining and strong fall activity, it appears that we’ll set a new sales record by year’s end. Total sales dollar volume is currently up 20% above 2006 year-to-date levels. At the same time, transaction volume is down just 5% through the first 8 months of the year, essentially a break-even number.

August again saw strong activity in the high-end niche, with 7 sales closing over $5 million. The largest sale was of a new slopeside home in Vail/Lionshead, closing at $13,800,000. Beaver Creek Resort experienced the highest sales dollar volume at $68.5 million, and had the second highest number of transactions with 37.

Two notable land transactions closed in August; one for $7 million in Strawberry Park, and the other for $5.8 million in Bachelor Gulch. Once homes are built on these sites, the total project costs will likely exceed $18 - $20 million. The selling prices of homesites such as these clearly indicate the direction that the luxury niche of our market is headed.

Please stay tuned for additional updates, as more significant sales are close at hand.

2007-09-24T13:18:00.000-06:00

True to course, the fall season is proving to be quite active!

As predicted several weeks ago, September real estate activity has been strong as buyers make final purchase decisions in preparation for the ski season ahead. In spite of what is happening in select metropolitan real estate markets across the country, luxury ski property in Vail, Beaver Creek, Bachelor Gulch and Arrowhead continues to sell at a strong pace.

Since just the first of the month, several landmark properties have closed or been placed under contract, as you can see from the following.

Vail Village - The Willows #106 - Under Contract - Listed at $4,500,000 / $2,211 sf

Vail Village - The Willows #204 - Under Contract - Listed at $6,750,000 / $2,400 sf

Vail Village - The Willows #303 - Under Contract - Listed at $8,500,000 / $2,715 sf
Beaver Creek - 66 Village Walk - Sold - $4,945,000 / $1,125 sf

Beaver Creek - 75 Village Walk - Sold - $6,700,000 / $1,238 sf

Beaver Creek - 97 Village Walk - Sold - $6,295,000 / $1,163 sf

Beaver Creek - 872 Strawberry Park Rd - Under Contract - Listed at $11,500,000 / $1,260 sf
Bachelor Gulch - 65 Elkhorn Road - Sold - $8,875,000 / $880 sf

Arrowhead - 2255 Cresta Road - Sold - $9,650,000 / $969 sf

New developments in Vail Village continue to enjoy great success. The Willows, situated just steps to the base area, is now down to one remaining residence. Manor Vail and Solaris, with construction well under way, both continue to place properties under contract. The Ritz Carlton Residences project in Lionshead is also moving along well, and almost 65% of the properties are now spoken for. At the current pace, many of our new projects are likely to sell out over the coming season.

After several days spent previewing property last week, I can report that there has rarely been such a selection of unique, truly one-of-a-kind custom estates available throughout the Vail Valley. From Vail to Beaver Creek to the Lake Creek area, developers are stepping it up a notch when it comes to the creativity, custom design, and special touches found in their homes. When combined with several irreplaceable, spectacular settings, these estates will become new benchmarks in the Vail Valley.

2007-09-10T15:56:00.000-06:00

Further Evidence of a Solid Real Estate Market in the Vail Valley

While questions abound for many metropolitan areas, Vail Valley real estate figures continue to support the contention that we remain one of the most solid markets in the country. Recently tabulated figures show that our real estate market is up over 20% in sales dollar volume, and we are taking aim on the $3 billion mark for the first time in history.

Year-to-date through early September, sales of properties listed at $1 million and greater are up a whopping 28%, with 406 closed transactions this year versus 317 in 2006. These sales are dispersed up and down the Vail Valley, led by Beaver Creek and Vail, and followed by Bachelor Gulch, Arrowhead and Cordillera. All-in-all, a balanced and active high end market.

Also noteable is the 41% increase in transactions of properties listed at $5 million and greater, with 38 such deals this year versus 27 a year ago.

Looking ahead, there are currently 326 properties listed at $1 million and greater that are under contract, representing approximately $1.17 billion in new sales and an average price tag of $3.56 million.

Each of these statistics are certainly impressive unto themselves, particularly given the uncertainties in the financial and housing markets nationwide. Taken together, they represent a ringing endorsement of both the present and future of Vail Valley luxury real estate by an astute, discerning clientele.

In closing, the future of the Vail Valley real estate market remains bright, both in the short and long term. It is a good time to call this "home"!

2007-09-06T09:29:00.000-06:00

July Numbers Confirm Suspicions About the Market

July sales numbers are hot-off-the-press, and confirm the continued momentum in our market. Year-to-date total dollar volume remained strong, totaling $1.75 billion through July, approximately 20% above last year. Though down about 6%, the overall number of transactions continues to set a solid pace. Should this strong sales activity continue over the next five months, the Eagle County market will surpass the $3 billion dollar mark for the first time in history.

Landmark sales in our ski areas continue to set the pace. Three more substantial properties have recently been placed under contract or closed.

Vail Village - The Willows #303 - Under Contract - Listed at $8,500,000 / $2,715 sf

Beaver Creek - 872 Strawberry Park Rd - Under Contract - Listed at $11,500,000 / $1,260 sf

Beaver Creek - 66 Village Walk - Sold - $4,945,000 / $1,125 sf

August and September are historically very strong months, and we can expect to see several more significant properties placed under contract and closed. Stay tuned for the latest!

2007-08-29T11:51:00.000-06:00

Big Hits Continue as the Summer Winds Down

True to course, the market continues to show strong activity as we move into the early fall season. Over the past few days, several high-end properties have been placed under contract, highlighted by the following...

Vail / Golf Course - 1183 Cabin Circle - Single Family - Listed at $5,900,000 / $942 sf

Vail / Golf Course - 2038 Sunburst - Single Family - Listed at $6,223,000 / $1,037 sf

Beaver Creek - 75 Village Walk - New Duplex - Listed at $6,800,000 / $1,257 sf

The two Vail Golf Course residences are each older homes / prime remodel candidates featuring unique locations and terrific views. 75 Village Walk is a flip, and was on the market but 19 days before the new buyer stepped in. Its original owner stands to pocket over $1 million on the sale.

Another notable Vail Village residence, 333 Beaver Dam Road, closed in mid-August for $8,550,000 / $1,845 sf. Built in 1987 and a likely candidate for a remodel, the home enjoys a terrific location in the midst of Vail's most acclaimed neighborhood.

The above transactions are but a precursor of things to come over the next several weeks, as buyers are now making final purchase decisions in preparation for the ski season ahead. In spite of what is occurring in many other markets across the country, the Vail Valley real estate market continues to demonstrate stability and bright prospects for continued growth.

2007-08-20T16:29:00.000-06:00

What IS going on in the market?

As the summer season rolls into its final weeks, I am beginning to hear rumblings from fellow brokers that activity is slowing, things are down, the high end is off pace, etc. On the surface this would seem to be expected, given the national headlines featuring softening markets and a shortage of buyers, and further compounded by the recent volatility in the financial markets. It doesn't take long for these gloom and doom scenarios to cause consternation, especially if a broker has not sold his or her listings over the summer season!

The truth of the matter, however, is quite different. We remain in the midst of a very strong and solid real estate market in Eagle County, similar to many other luxury resort areas around the country. At the end of the first half, Eagle County sales volume was up 25% over last year's solid pace.

Another murmur that I hear is that our sales volume is up only because prices have risen so quickly over the past few years, and that the luxury niche is carrying the rest of our real estate market on its back. Once again, the numbers just don't back this up. The number of transactions through the end of June was down but 3%, essentially a break-even number. And while the high-end niche continues to be very active, up double digits almost across the board, properties priced under a million continue to sell.

So what is the real deal?

Unlike years ago when sales activity was concentrated mainly in Vail Village and Beaver Creek, our market is now as spread out as it is diverse, with significant transactions occurring from East Vail all the way to Gypsum. While a Vail Village broker might feel that activity is off track, in fact, record-setting sales may well be occurring up and down the Vail Valley. Buyers in our market have more attractive opportunities than ever before, and are finding many of these diverse sub-markets to be quite appealing and worthy of their investment.

Further augmenting the strength and depth of our market are the number of multi-million dollar closings that will soon begin to take place in Vail and Lionshead. 333 properties listed at $1 million and greater are currently under contract, representing a total listing value of $1.06 billion. Comprised mainly of new developments such as Forest Place, Arrabelle, Manor Vail and others, these properties reflect an average listing price of $3.19 million, and an average price per square foot of $1,152. These new properties are "raising the bar" throughout the valley, with very positive ramifications for the market. Our sales numbers will be bolstered well into the future, the value of older existing properties will continue to rise, and the base of committed homeowners throughout the Vail Valley will continue to increase.

What does this mean to the buyer of luxury real estate?

Unlike Denver, Miami, Las Vegas and other metropolitan areas which are experiencing softness in their markets, you should not expect to find an overabundance of sellers in the Vail Valley who are desperate to get out of their property. What you can expect is to be able to choose from a very attractive inventory of unique properties, to strike an agreement that is fair to you, and to enjoy your property for years to come.

So don't pay attention to the "background noise" of a softening market in the Vail Valley... it's just not a fact. DO pay attention to the wonderful opportunities that are currently available for your consideration. DO pay attention to the ongoing strength and depth of demand we are experiencing, and how this will affect values in a market of limited supply. And DO know that this is likely to be one of the most enjoyable acquisitions you will ever make, one which you and your family will value for a lifetime.

Late-Summer Sales Surging

2007-08-07T09:26:00.000-06:00

As predicted, one can already sense the surge of late-summer activity heating up. Over just the past week, four significant ski homes in Beaver Creek, Bachelor Gulch and Arrowhead have been placed under contract.

Arrowhead - 2300 Cresta - 10,000 sf single family - Listed at $9,500,000

Arrowhead - 2255 Cresta - 9,959 sf single family - Listed at $10,500,000

Bachelor Gulch - 65 Elkhorn - 10,090 sf single family - Listed at $8,875,000

Beaver Creek - 86 Village Walk - 4,396 sf duplex - Listed at $6,650,000

Addtionally, Lot 38 on Daybreak Ridge/Bachelor Gulch, just closed at $5.8 million. It wasn't too many years ago that homes in Bachelor Gulch sold in the $5 million range! Recent homesite sales such as this indicate that prices of single family homes in Bachelor Gulch will continue to appreciate aggressively.

Stay tuned for additional updates as we move into the final busy weeks of the summer selling season. Thank you!

First Half Numbers Very Solid!

2007-08-01T10:26:00.001-06:00

June sales figures are in, completing what was a terrific first half of the year. June's numbers reflected the highest monthly totals of the year, with over $332 million in county-wide sales volume, and 286 transactions. Total dollar volume now sits at over $1.56 billion in sales, up 25% over a year ago. If sales velocity continues at the current trend, we will establish a new record by year's end.

Large transactions setting the pace

The luxury niche continues to be the driving force in our market. Several significant transactions closed in the past few weeks, as you can see below.

95 Forest Road / Vail Single Family / $12,000,000 / $2,013 sf

4246 Columbine / East Vail Single Family / $7,525,000 / $897 sf

173 Strawberry Park Court / Beaver Creek Single Family / $13,500,000 / $1,352 sf

60 Village Walk / Beaver Creek Duplex / $5,995,000 / $1,144 sf

46 Village Walk / Beaver Creek Duplex / $6,395,000 / $1,220 sf

86 Village Walk / Beaver Creek Duplex / $4,995,000 / $1,136 sf

Ritz-Carlton #907 - Bachelor Gulch Condominium - $4,000,000 / $1,807 sf

Several other significant properties were placed under contract over June and July, highlighted by the following.

621 Forest Place / Vail Lionshead Single Family / $14,900,000 / $1,345 sf

333 Beaver Dam Road / Vail Single Family / $9,850,000 / $2,126 sf

Manor Vail #454 / Vail Condominium / $8,600,000 / $2,556 sf

2300 Cresta / Arrowhead Single Family / $9,500,000 / $950 sf

Year-to-date, 321 properties listed at $1 million and greater have been sold county-wide, as compared with 258 properties a year ago. Our average transaction year-to-date is just under $1.1 million.

What does this mean to you, the buyer?

In spite of the terrific year-to-date sales figures, our market is not in the midst of a huge run-up that will result in a crash. Rather, I see us in a period of long term, sustainable growth, interspersed with "breathing periods" of adjusting to new prices and fluctuating inventory levels. Current sales and pricing trends are reflective of a quality product (i.e., the Vail Valley), limited supply, and strong demand from a deep wellspring of saavy buyers.

While property is certainly moving, there remains a solid inventory from which to choose in many segments of the market. This is particularly true of the high end, single family / duplex market, where many unique and very special properties are currently available. Many of these are absolute, one-of-a-kind homes, whether due to an irreplaceable location, unparalleled quality and design, or all of the above.

If you have had your eye on a particular property, now is the time to act. Buyers will be here in force through mid-September, and they are here to make final purchase decisions. On the other hand, if you are willing to gamble, you might be advised to hold off until late September to bring in your offer.

Sellers of properties which have not gone under contract over the summer/early fall frequently become "antsy" at this point of the season, knowing that it will be another three months before buyers will be back in town. I have found this to be an effective time to negotiate more aggressively on property, taking advantage of this lull in seller psychology.

I only advise this strategy, however, if you are truly willing to gamble that the property you like will still be available at the end of the season. If losing it to another buyer will cause undue pain, then go ahead and take a run at it. Long term, you will be glad that you did, as there is no better place (in my admittedly-biased opinion!) to own real estate, and enjoy all that the Vail Valley has to offer!

Thank you for your interest, and for this opportunity to be of service.

2007-07-10T17:51:00.000-06:00

Market heating up with the weather!

As if on cue, buyers began arriving in force over the July 4th holiday week, and large transactions are beginning to go under contract. This bodes well for a successful summer selling season, and a solid year of growth in Vail Valley real estate sales.

A few of the more notable ski properties placed under contract over the past couple of weeks include the following:

4246 Columbine Drive - East Vail - $7,900,000 - MLS# V312761
621 Forest Place - Vail/Lionshead - List Price $14,900,000 - MLS# V308207
79 Village Walk - Beaver Creek - List Price $5,795,000 - MLS# V305069

Each of the above properties were included in my most recent "Top Picks" selection. It would be safe to assume that their buyers clearly recognize the value and long term appeal of each of these unique and special homes. The sale of these properties so early in the summer season is also a reminder that, when you find the right property, it behooves you to move on it without delay. I am certain that there are other potential buyers for each of the above properties who are now kicking themselves for not acting sooner!

For more information on these or other properties, please go to "All Area Listings" at the top of the page to access the Vail Board of Realtors MLS. And for a more extensive look at the early summer/year-to-date sales trends, please visit my report dated June 29, 2007.

Thank you for your interest, and for this opportunity to be of service.

2007-06-29T13:18:00.000-06:00

Summer is here...

What's happening with the market?

The arrival of the July 4th weekend marks the beginning of the summer selling season in the Vail Valley, with sales activity over the past two months but a precursor to that which will occur between now and the end of September. Seller’s are rapidly bringing properties to market, doing everything they can to make them as appealing as possible. Buyers, on the other hand, are gearing up for what will likely be a fun and enjoyable twelve weeks of looking at real estate!

Further establishing the fact that real estate is local, not national, and debunking the trends being touted in national publications, our market continues to establish itself as one of the best in the country. The latest available numbers continue to demonstrate solid activity throughout the Vail Valley. April, 2007 was the best April on record with almost $234 million in sales and 221 total transactions, and was the fourth straight month that Eagle County experienced record-setting volume. Average sales prices once again came in at over $1 million, bringing the year-to-date average sales price for all transactions in Eagle County to $1,054,708.

The luxury niche of the market continues to be the driving force throughout the valley. Nine homes priced above $5 million have sold since April 1st, with two in prestigious Strawberry Park closing in April for over $10 million apiece.

Total sales dollar volume was up 27% at the end of April when compared to 2006. The overall number of transactions is holding firm, tallying 2% above last year. Steady demand and limited supply of product have continued to result in rising prices throughout the market.

Vail

This summer will be an excellent time to look at real estate in Vail, as your selections are ample. Excluding new projects such as Solaris, Arrabelle, the Ritz Carlton Residences, Manor Vail and the Four Seasons, all of which are several months or more from delivery, there are currently 62 properties available in Vail priced at $3 million or more. These represent a wide range of properties and locations, from homes on Forest and Beaver Dam Roads in the heart of the village, to beautiful creekside residences in East and West Vail.

Focusing in on Vail Village and Lionshead, there are currently 39 condominium properties available at an average price of $1,485/sf. Ranging from luxurious properties at The Lodge and Riverhouse, to fixer-uppers at Village Inn Plaza, there are a number of properties ready and available to accommodate your family this ski season.

The single family and luxury duplex market in Vail Village and Lionshead also has an attractive inventory of available properties. Seven new/under construction residences are currently being offered, at an average price of appx $2,100/sf. Older (though very nice!) existing residences are averaging over $1,791/sf.

All of the aforementioned new projects are well under way, and within the next two years we will experience a wave of new property never before seen in Vail Village and Lionshead. All projects are selling very well, at prices ranging up to $3,000/sf and averaging over $2,100/sf. While most still offer an attractive selection of available residences, I expect many of these new developments to sell out between now and year’s end. Please call for more details.

Beaver Creek

The condominium market in Beaver Creek is currently well stocked with opportunities for buyers to consider. Many new properties have come on the market over the past few weeks, and are poised for a summer sale. Average price for condos, townhomes and duplexes currently runs $960/sf.

The single family market in Beaver Creek also offers a number of very attractive homes, though with but 20 custom single family homes currently on the market (excluding enclave residences) inventory is down from the norm of appx 25 – 30 residences. Yet the available selection is intriguing, ranging from remodel opportunities on Holden Road to one of the finest residences in the Vail Valley, situated in Strawberry Park, priced at almost $18 million.

Bachelor Gulch

Bachelor Gulch presents an interesting picture to buyers as the summer approaches. Both the condominium and single family markets are very tight. Single family inventory is down appx 50%, with but six residences currently available at an average price of $13 million / $1,405 sf. The condo market offers a good mix of properties, yet again, inventory is down from the norm. Only thirteen existing condominium residences are currently available, ranging from $1.2 million for a terrific one bedroom residence at Horizon Pass Lodge, up to a $6.2 million luxury condominium at the Ritz Carlton. Average price per square foot currently runs appx $1,232/sf.

What does the future hold?

I am often asked what the future holds for our market, i.e., where will we be in five or ten years? While lacking a crystal ball (if only!), a confluence of several factors is currently in play that should help ensure a strong run well into the future.

Among the most important of these, the baby boomer segment of our population is now into the prime years for buying a second home. The stock market continues to do well, as does the overall economy. Wall Street bonuses have been extraordinary. Interest rates remain at very attractive levels. The largest transfer of wealth from one generation to another is just beginning to take place. Each of these are important in their own right, and when combined, provide a deep sense of confidence in the direction of our market.

What does this mean for you, the buyer of luxury property?

You have a wonderful selection of ski properties to choose from if buying this summer. That said, inventory of highly desirable properties is somewhat down in several segments, particularly in Bachelor Gulch. With the current lag time for delivery of new product, especially in Vail and Lionshead, existing properties should experience strong demand.

Bottom line… if you see a property that makes sense for you and your family, I encourage you to buy. For whatever reason, particularly in active markets such as ours, it oftentimes seems that the moment one buyer becomes interested in a specific property, there are also others “out there” who swoop in and make the situation competitive.

When combined with the world class skiing, golf, and other activities available in the Vail Valley, along with our wealth of supporting amenities and easy access, it is no wonder that our area is experiencing unprecedented demand. These are also why I believe that the market will continue to enjoy solid growth for years to come. I encourage you to join us, and make the Vail Valley your mountain home. You will be glad that you did!